Every pick we've made.
Including the bad ones.
This page is append-only. Nothing is ever deleted, edited or quietly hidden after the fact — which means the losing weeks are here too, because a record without them isn't a record.
How to read this honestly
A 67% cut rate sounds impressive and tells you almost nothing on its own — a model that only ever backed heavy favourites would beat it and still lose money. The number that matters is the second one: return at flat stakes. That's what you'd have actually made staking the same amount on every pick, and it's the only figure that survives contact with a bookmaker's margin.
The third number matters too, in the other direction. Two of our eleven months were losing months. June was down 4.1%. That isn't a bug or a bad patch we're apologising for — it's what a genuine 8% long-run edge looks like month to month. Anyone showing you eleven green months is showing you a filtered sample.
| Date | Fixture | Market | Odds | Our prob. | Conf. | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 02 Aug | Arsenal v ChelseaPremier League · 3-1 | Over 2.5 | 1.85 | 71% | HIGH | Won |
| Sat 02 Aug | Dortmund v MainzBundesliga · 2-0 | Dortmund win | 1.35 | 79% | HIGH | Won |
| Sat 02 Aug | Real Betis v SevillaLa Liga · 1-1 | Under 2.5 | 2.05 | 53% | MED | Won |
| Sat 02 Aug | Celtic v RangersScottish Prem · 1-1 | Over 2.5 | 1.68 | 63% | MED | Lost |
| Sat 02 Aug | PSV v FeyenoordEredivisie · 3-2 | Over 2.5 | 1.55 | 66% | HIGH | Won |
| Fri 01 Aug | Napoli v RomaSerie A · 1-0 | BTTS | 1.72 | 60% | MED | Lost |
| Fri 01 Aug | Inter v LecceSerie A · 3-0 | Inter −1 AH | 1.62 | 66% | HIGH | Won |
| Thu 31 Jul | Ajax v TwenteEredivisie · 4-1 | Over 2.5 | 1.48 | 70% | HIGH | Won |
| Thu 31 Jul | Lyon v NiceLigue 1 · 1-0 | Under 2.5 | 1.95 | 55% | MED | Won |
| Wed 30 Jul | Man City v SevillaChampions League · 1-1 | Man City win | 1.42 | 69% | MED | Lost |
| Wed 30 Jul | Bayern v LazioChampions League · 3-1 | Over 2.5 | 1.60 | 67% | HIGH | Won |
| Tue 29 Jul | Boston v MiamiNBA · 118-104 | Over 214.5 | 1.90 | 56% | MED | Won |
| Tue 29 Jul | Denver v PhoenixNBA · Den +2 | Denver −4.5 | 1.87 | 55% | MED | Lost |
| Mon 28 Jul | Alcaraz v RuneATP Toronto · 6-3 6-4 | Alcaraz 2-0 | 2.10 | 51% | MED | Won |
| Mon 28 Jul | Brighton v WolvesPremier League · 2-2 | BTTS | 1.66 | 64% | HIGH | Won |
| Sun 27 Jul | Atlético v OsasunaLa Liga · 2-0 | Atlético win | 1.48 | 74% | HIGH | Won |
| Sun 27 Jul | Leverkusen v WerderBundesliga · 2-1 | Over 3.5 | 2.30 | 46% | LOW | Lost |
| Sun 27 Jul | Juventus v TorinoSerie A · 1-0 | Under 2.5 | 1.72 | 62% | MED | Won |
Showing the last 18 settled predictions. In the product this table runs to every prediction ever published, filterable by sport, league, market, month and confidence band. At a flat ₦500 stake this sample returned +₦2,155 (ROI +23.9%).
Calibration is the real test
When we say 70%, does it happen 70% of the time? Every published prediction, bucketed by the probability we stated, against what actually occurred. The closer the line sits to the diagonal, the more honest the number on the card was.
Our worst bucket is out by 1.9 points. We slightly under-call the 80%+ band, which is the safer direction to be wrong in — but it's still an error and it's still published.
Now go and check the maths yourself.
The demo runs the same engine on sample fixtures — every probability computed in front of you.